The Doom Level in last week’s AGI Doom livestream (full video above) was considerably lower than I expected. Instead, the conversation mostly focused on AI’s mid-range economic effects. Perhaps the AI Doomers consider me beyond redemption? If so, they should be swarming me with offers to bet. Or at least maxing out every credit card they can get their hands on. If we’re all going to die, why not live high before you die?
Gentle ribbing of fellow well-meaning nerds aside, even I agree that AGI doom is more likely than I thought decades ago. But that’s only because AI has advanced more rapidly than I expected: P(AI doom | AI) > P(AI doom). My P(AI salvation) has increased by the same multiple. And as usual, my P(any specific extreme outcome) remains low. Weird stuff happens all the time, but the vast majority of weird stuff is eternally confined to our infinite imaginations.
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