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Matt Pencer's avatar

I'm confused; you say that you would NOT bet 10:1 that any of those three countries would become Venezuela, which implies the probability is <10% (or <3-4% per country). But then in the next paragraph you say the odds are at least 15%.

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JC's avatar

I second that confusion. That bit could use editing for clarity.

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J. Goard's avatar

Yeah, he clearly meant that he wouldn't LAY 10:1 odds.

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N. N.'s avatar

My interpretation of that was that he thinks the chance is <90%, not <10%.

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