AFAIK most Chinese citizens do not perceive themselves as victims of tyranny - more likely they are to perceive themselves as proud citizens of a rising country, which has a troubled past. All I'm aware of is the polls showing an overwhelming popular support for the Chinese government. Even if the results were skewed, to deduce the opposite result just due to suspected bias would be an error of colossal magnitude.
You can't actually make a blanket statement like Caplan is here. The degree to which would-be emigrants from a nondemocratic regime are mostly unhappy dissidents in search of freedoms, and the degree to which they are mostly loyal nationalists of their homeland in search of higher wages, actually differs a LOT from place to place and time to time. As well as from ethnic group to ethnic group within a country (a Sunni Arab Iraqi and a Kurdish Iraqi, for example, might have been expected to exhibit very different levels of loyalty to Saddam's regime).
Today, Chinese immigrants in the West are more likely to fall into the "loyal nationalist" group, Russian immigrants in the "unhappy dissident" (i.e. anti-Putin) group -- though less-so than in the Soviet years, when they notably included many unhappy Russian Jews.
The Chinese regime also makes great use of their diaspora network for espionage purposes, and is quick to label any inquest into their bad behavior as de facto evidence of racism on part of the inquirers. A tactic for which they also use on anybody who criticizes the PRC's bad behavior in any capacity, such as the smears which to this day are used against anyone who claims Covid-19 was man-made, the result of a lab leak, part of bioweapons research, or the PRC deliberately exacerbating the release of Covid from their borders, even though there's strong evidence for all four of these points:
then highlighting the divergence where "our" policy splits those two groups: if "we" are against Bad Chinese Government Policy, but not Chinese citizens, it makes it salient to those citizens how their interests might indeed diverge from their government's. Especially since most citizens' main demand from their government is to protect them from other governments, in order to convince them to support our goals and not their governments, you have to convince them you aren't a threat to them (the citizens). Obviously yes, no doubt many Chinese citizens have other reasons (flawed or not, coerced or not) to support their government, but if another government is perceived to be a threat to * them *, then they will * always * support their government against that other one.
Similar for Russia. I know there are Russians who are against the war. Some I know personally. And they know they are a minority. And I know some of the majority; some among the emigrated, too. - I still agree with Caplan's main take: opening our borders to more of them is the best strategy to change their minds and to weaken their criminal government. With a net profit for us: Even the pro-Putin guys here mostly just work and pay their taxes, not attacking Ukrainian refugees on the street (and 3 to 6 million in Germany have some relatively recent "Russian" background). - Bombing did not change the minds of Germans, Iraqis or Ukranians. As long as Putin and Xi command the guys with the machine-guns, the opinions of their peons do not matter that much - contrary to Harari. Still: I do "have some quarrel" with the bigger part of the Russian people. As with Nobel-laureate Brodsky whose ultra-chauvinistic hate-poem most would nod to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Independence_of_Ukraine#cite_note-7
And if I could read Chinese blogs and/or could collect data of their opinions, I might well have some quarrel with them.
> polls showing an overwhelming popular support for the Chinese government. Even if the results were skewed, to deduce the opposite result just due to suspected bias would be an error of colossal magnitude.
Even IF the pools were skewed....SUSPECTED bias? The fascist Chinese govt murders FAMILIES of opponents. Youre stupid beyond stupid.
Thank you; your assessment of my cognitive faculties is quite impressive.
Even if you did confidently believe that the bias in polls showing massive support for the Chinese government was huge, that does not itself carry with it much if any evidence towards the contrary. You're merely restating your beliefs by explicitly stating you're unwilling to entertain (some) evidence. What evidence would suffice?
You can, of course, assert that no poll on Chinese opinion on their government provides any info whatsoever. Then we'll just have to discard all the results they provide, including for ex the ones showing declining trust towards the govt during the pandemic. I have no clue what purpose such fabricated results would serve for the government, but then again I've always had trouble with doublethink.
The current Chinese govt is led by a group that murdered 34-64 million people. They might occasionally speak truth but one would never know when or why. Economists regard their statistics as political, not science.
Chinese history includes many rebellions and civil wars when political leaders failed on their promises.
That indeed is the gist of the post. However, Caplan quite confidently asserts that the vast majority of Chinese people are victims of tyranny, and insinuates a significant part of that majority would perhaps like to move.
Any and all knowledge we have of what the majority of Chinese citizens actually thinks flies in the face of this idea. It is not at all problematic to speak of majority opinions like this; I doubt many would take issue with me claiming, for example, that the majority of U.S. citizens likely would not want Sharia law to be implemented in their state or county. Saying that does not mean I've stopped judging U.S. citizens as individuals.
The problem still stands that the overwhelming majority of the PRC's overseas dirtyworkers have always been members of the Chinese diaspora. Whenever you get skewed results for groups, you always get accused of racism and persecution no matter how unimpechable your conduct or necessary the operations. The FBI's crackdown on black nationalism was absolutely tarred in popular consciousness, and remains so to this day, even though the likes of the Panthers were genuinely criminal and dangerous, and needed to be stopped to at minimum avoid turning the US into Northern Ireland.
AFAIK most Chinese citizens do not perceive themselves as victims of tyranny - more likely they are to perceive themselves as proud citizens of a rising country, which has a troubled past. All I'm aware of is the polls showing an overwhelming popular support for the Chinese government. Even if the results were skewed, to deduce the opposite result just due to suspected bias would be an error of colossal magnitude.
Yep, this is about right.
You can't actually make a blanket statement like Caplan is here. The degree to which would-be emigrants from a nondemocratic regime are mostly unhappy dissidents in search of freedoms, and the degree to which they are mostly loyal nationalists of their homeland in search of higher wages, actually differs a LOT from place to place and time to time. As well as from ethnic group to ethnic group within a country (a Sunni Arab Iraqi and a Kurdish Iraqi, for example, might have been expected to exhibit very different levels of loyalty to Saddam's regime).
Today, Chinese immigrants in the West are more likely to fall into the "loyal nationalist" group, Russian immigrants in the "unhappy dissident" (i.e. anti-Putin) group -- though less-so than in the Soviet years, when they notably included many unhappy Russian Jews.
The Chinese regime also makes great use of their diaspora network for espionage purposes, and is quick to label any inquest into their bad behavior as de facto evidence of racism on part of the inquirers. A tactic for which they also use on anybody who criticizes the PRC's bad behavior in any capacity, such as the smears which to this day are used against anyone who claims Covid-19 was man-made, the result of a lab leak, part of bioweapons research, or the PRC deliberately exacerbating the release of Covid from their borders, even though there's strong evidence for all four of these points:
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/62902808-no-limits
then highlighting the divergence where "our" policy splits those two groups: if "we" are against Bad Chinese Government Policy, but not Chinese citizens, it makes it salient to those citizens how their interests might indeed diverge from their government's. Especially since most citizens' main demand from their government is to protect them from other governments, in order to convince them to support our goals and not their governments, you have to convince them you aren't a threat to them (the citizens). Obviously yes, no doubt many Chinese citizens have other reasons (flawed or not, coerced or not) to support their government, but if another government is perceived to be a threat to * them *, then they will * always * support their government against that other one.
Similar for Russia. I know there are Russians who are against the war. Some I know personally. And they know they are a minority. And I know some of the majority; some among the emigrated, too. - I still agree with Caplan's main take: opening our borders to more of them is the best strategy to change their minds and to weaken their criminal government. With a net profit for us: Even the pro-Putin guys here mostly just work and pay their taxes, not attacking Ukrainian refugees on the street (and 3 to 6 million in Germany have some relatively recent "Russian" background). - Bombing did not change the minds of Germans, Iraqis or Ukranians. As long as Putin and Xi command the guys with the machine-guns, the opinions of their peons do not matter that much - contrary to Harari. Still: I do "have some quarrel" with the bigger part of the Russian people. As with Nobel-laureate Brodsky whose ultra-chauvinistic hate-poem most would nod to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Independence_of_Ukraine#cite_note-7
And if I could read Chinese blogs and/or could collect data of their opinions, I might well have some quarrel with them.
> polls showing an overwhelming popular support for the Chinese government. Even if the results were skewed, to deduce the opposite result just due to suspected bias would be an error of colossal magnitude.
Even IF the pools were skewed....SUSPECTED bias? The fascist Chinese govt murders FAMILIES of opponents. Youre stupid beyond stupid.
Thank you; your assessment of my cognitive faculties is quite impressive.
Even if you did confidently believe that the bias in polls showing massive support for the Chinese government was huge, that does not itself carry with it much if any evidence towards the contrary. You're merely restating your beliefs by explicitly stating you're unwilling to entertain (some) evidence. What evidence would suffice?
You can, of course, assert that no poll on Chinese opinion on their government provides any info whatsoever. Then we'll just have to discard all the results they provide, including for ex the ones showing declining trust towards the govt during the pandemic. I have no clue what purpose such fabricated results would serve for the government, but then again I've always had trouble with doublethink.
The current Chinese govt is led by a group that murdered 34-64 million people. They might occasionally speak truth but one would never know when or why. Economists regard their statistics as political, not science.
Chinese history includes many rebellions and civil wars when political leaders failed on their promises.
That indeed is the gist of the post. However, Caplan quite confidently asserts that the vast majority of Chinese people are victims of tyranny, and insinuates a significant part of that majority would perhaps like to move.
Any and all knowledge we have of what the majority of Chinese citizens actually thinks flies in the face of this idea. It is not at all problematic to speak of majority opinions like this; I doubt many would take issue with me claiming, for example, that the majority of U.S. citizens likely would not want Sharia law to be implemented in their state or county. Saying that does not mean I've stopped judging U.S. citizens as individuals.
The problem still stands that the overwhelming majority of the PRC's overseas dirtyworkers have always been members of the Chinese diaspora. Whenever you get skewed results for groups, you always get accused of racism and persecution no matter how unimpechable your conduct or necessary the operations. The FBI's crackdown on black nationalism was absolutely tarred in popular consciousness, and remains so to this day, even though the likes of the Panthers were genuinely criminal and dangerous, and needed to be stopped to at minimum avoid turning the US into Northern Ireland.