$200 seems like a small bet, given EY's strong opinion. Which party kept the amount so low? Should we interpret that as a lack of confidence?
Would it be legal for EY to put Caplan as a conditional beneficiary in EY's will? I guess even if the basic idea of having your estate pay off a bet was legal, there's the problem of delaying the payoff until the bet deadline?
Would you say end of the world due to AGI is looking more/less likely today than 2017?
I would guess that Caplan's view hasn't changed and Yud's has grown more bleak.
My p(doom) has increased from under <1% in 2017 to maybe 10% now. So I'd still take the bet if someone I trusted to pay offered it to me.
This should be an easy bet for you to win.
For Bryan and his family to hide underground from the killer AI robots and pop out and run around on the surface on Jan 1, 3030.
"$100 USD is due to Eliezer Yudkowsky before February 1st, 2017 for the bet to
become effective." Either this bet started eight years ago or this bet isn't officially "effective."
This bet did start 8 years ago. This is a repost of a 2017 post from Bryan's old blog, ported to Substack.
I was puzzled by that too. It's not even a single-digit typo.
If he's correct he won't have to pay. I'm still waiting for Peak Oil, Global Freezing\Warming + Overpopulation.
$200 seems like a small bet, given EY's strong opinion. Which party kept the amount so low? Should we interpret that as a lack of confidence?
Would it be legal for EY to put Caplan as a conditional beneficiary in EY's will? I guess even if the basic idea of having your estate pay off a bet was legal, there's the problem of delaying the payoff until the bet deadline?
the real interest rate necessary to defend fiat currencies from bitcoin equals real gross world product growth, which may be quite large due to AI.