What Happened in Ukraine
A year ago I challenged EconLog readers to make unconditional predictions about the Ukraine conflict:
Challenge: In the comments, go on the record and predict what will
actually come of the emerging Ukrainian-Russian conflict. Only
unconditional, falsifiable predictions count. No claims like: “Unless
the EU acts…” “If Russia comes to its senses…” or “This will be a
very different world.” Make specific claims about what will actually
happen by a specific date.In a year I’ll revisit your comments and rank their accuracy with the benefit of hindsight.
Before I carry out the promised ranking, this is what’s actually seems to have happened:
About 6,000 have been killed.
Russia has formally annexed Crimea, but not officially declared war on Ukraine.
Russia has covertly sent thousands of Russian soldiers into Ukraine, but less than ten thousand.
Real GDP growth was slightly over 0% in Russia and under -5% in Ukraine.
So few NATO troops have been killed that no statistics for NATO fatalities in Ukraine google.
Despite several peace deals, fighting continues.
Anyone seriously dispute any of these facts? Any major facts I’m omitting?
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