What Are You Waiting For?

A natalism guest post by Ian Fillmore

Bet On It reader Ian Fillmore recently sent me a very insightful email on natalism, which I encouraged him to expand upon. In fact, I’ll put it squarely in the obvious-once-you-think-about-it category.

Here’s Ian.

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In response to declining birth rates, policymakers have begun experimenting with child allowances, tax credits, subsidized childcare, and parental leave — all in an effort to encourage people to have more children. These efforts often focus on reducing the cost of having additional children — urging couples to go from one to two, or two to three. But there's an underappreciated lever that deserves more attention: rather than trying to persuade couples to have another child on the back end, perhaps we should be encouraging them to have their first child a bit earlier. If we really believe our rhetoric that kids are wonderful, then increased fertility will naturally follow.

Couples Are Waiting Longer to Start Having Kids

Mothers' age at first birth has risen steadily in the United States and across the developed world. In 1970, American mothers had their first child at an average age of 21.4. Today, it's 27.5. That’s six fewer years—prime fertility years, no less—in which to have children. With a two-year spacing, that’s enough time for three kids!

One reason young people are waiting so much longer to have kids is that they’re doing what they’ve been told. I'm enough of a libertarian that I don’t really want to tell people what to do with their families. Unfortunately, everyone else seems perfectly happy to bombard young people with one-sided advice about fertility. The message is invariably the same: "Wait!"

Why Starting Earlier Makes Sense

There are certainly good reasons to delay parenthood (yes, I understand opportunity costs). But there are a number of reasons to start early too. Here are just a few:

1. More time means more children. Starting earlier gives couples a wider reproductive window. It gives them options.

2. You might want more than you think. Many new parents (women and men alike) are surprised by how much they enjoy being a parent — and often wish they had time for more. Starting earlier leaves that door open.

3. It’s easier when you’re younger. Raising children is simply easier when you're younger, healthier, and more energetic.

4. Fertility declines faster than people think. Many young people underestimate how quickly fertility declines with age — and how stressful (both emotionally and physically), expensive, and uncertain fertility treatments like IVF can be.

5. Kids will know their grandparents. Having children earlier increases the likelihood that grandparents will be around — and able — to help. It also means stronger intergenerational ties.

6. You’ll likely have more time with your grandkids. If you have your first child at 35, and your child does the same, you may not meet your first grandchild until you're 70.

7. Life is unpredictable. Even with strong intentions, factors like infertility, health issues, partnership changes, or career disruptions can derail family plans. Starting earlier builds in buffer time.

Give Young People a Balanced Perspective

We don’t need to trick young people into doing something they don’t want to do. How about we just give them an accurate and balanced perspective on having children, instead of the distorted and one-sided advice they're currently getting? Rather than telling parents in their thirties “Have one more for humanity’s sake!”, we could instead tell young people in their early twenties, “You know, instead of waiting until you’re 27, you might consider having your first child at 25 or 26. Here are some reasons why that might make sense.”

What If Couples Started One Year Earlier?

What would happen to fertility if couples started having children one year earlier? The total fertility rate (TFR) in the U.S. is currently 1.66. According to estimates of the relationship between age at first birth and completed fertility, we should expect something like a 3–5% increase in total fertility, with some studies suggesting even more. This translates to a rise in the TFR of about 0.05–0.10. That’s comparable to, or larger than, the effect of more expensive interventions like baby bonuses, tax incentives, or free childcare.

Note: we’re not talking about persuading childless adults to have kids. We’re just shifting already-planned fertility slightly earlier.

How might we do that? Fair question. I don’t know for sure (though we have managed to push it back by six years!). But it seems plausible that pro-natalists might have better luck encouraging a modest shift in when people start their families rather than trying to convince two-child couples to go for a third.

Don’t Forget About Large Families

An increase of 0.05–0.10 in the TFR is significant. But the long-run impact might be even larger due to the underappreciated role of large families (five or more children). Children from large families tend to have more children themselves, making these families incubators of high-fertility norms. But large families become nearly impossible if couples start childbearing in their thirties.

But aren’t large families rare? How big of a deal can they be? Imagine a village with 100 couples. Eighty couples have one child each; twenty couples have six. Large families make up just 20% of the population — but they account for 60% of the next generation of children.

Fifty years ago, large families were uncommon but still numerous enough to supply a sizable share of the next generation. As the average age at first birth rose, large families declined — and with them, their disproportionate influence on future fertility norms. By shifting fertility a bit earlier, we open up space for more large families to develop, potentially transforming a vicious cycle into a virtuous one.

Conclusion

To be clear, I’m not advocating for pushing people into parenthood before they’re ready. I am saying that pro-natalists can — and should — counter the one-sided advice young people receive by offering a more balanced and realistic view of the joys of parenthood and the advantages of starting earlier.