Dutch here! I think and hope you are ultimately right, but it’s more tricky than you think..
Islam is not just a slightly exotic christianity. Its much more comprehensive, with its own legal system, more political organization, etc. These things persist in Europe: most muslims in the Netherlands marry through arranged marriage, often with someone in the home country, sometimes with cousins. We had many cases of marital captivity, secret sharia courts, etc. Religious identity gets mixed with ethnic and national identity of the country of origin. The loyalty of most of our Muslim immigrant population is not hard to guess, and its not with us.. Even my ex-girlfriend, who is a diplomat, signalled quite often that her ultimate loyalty was with muslims, not with the country.
Especially for guys its a pretty sweet deal: they tend to drink and fuck around, until they want to marry: a virgin muslim girl of course. Change has to come, and is often coming, from girls, who choose freedom over their second-class role. I think on balance, things will work out, and if we limit immigration, we can keep Islamization of our country to a minimum - liberalism will then prevail. But its a subtle balance, and not at all a done deal. Mind you: our second city, Rotterdam, is already co-governed by a Muslim party that calls for the chemical castration of sex offenders, abolition of Israel, claimed that Dutch doctors are purposefully killing Moroccan patients, etc..
Don’t think full assimilation is feasible in the mid-term.. It’s also not really required: the Netherlands is a functioning country and can handle ~5% of the population being Islamic. If it can also handle 20%? I don’t know. Things in the Middle East are generally trending in the right direction, with Saudi taking the lead in liberalization. However, what if Vision 2030 fails and backfires? What if the conflict with Iran escalates?
In terms of a civilizational conflict between the West and Islam, I think we are on the winning side: liberal values are gaining ground. However, declaring victory is premature, and I’d like to be risk-averse when it comes to the future of my country. Difference in birth rates between ethnic Dutch and immigrants will cause a demographic transition anyway, which will likely have large, but currently unknown effects on culture, politics, national identity, etc. Let’s see what that brings, no need to accelerate the process.
That’s my biggest problem with Caplan’s open borders idea. Europe is currently undergoing its biggest demographic experiment and transition in a thousand years. Let’s see how that goes, will we? I know Caplan believes the math of migrationmaxxing works out, but I think he does not allow for enough model uncertainty. From a longtermist perspective, err on the side of caution, I’d rather have slightly lower economic growth while potentially avoiding civilizational collapse.
What's impressive is that almost 20 years after America Alone, came out, how correct it's been. It came out years before Merkel opened up the floodgates of Islamic immigration, but Steyn correctly called out how at even lower previous levels, Islamic immigration would change life in Europe and its foreign policy. The show of force carried about by European Islamic immigrants since October 7th and EU governments reluctance to back Israel, further bolsters Steyn's thesis on how immigration will make Europe more similar to Damascus than the reverse.
Fiery spokesmen who're outnumbered can still have a very outsized influence, look at all the influence the pro-Palestine movement has despite being so small
"Western culture, beautiful, fun, and smart, wins converts and undermines the competition simply by existing."
Western culture, oblivious, arrogant and stodgy, is systematically grooming its own younger generations to consider itself a horribly sinful, racist, oppressive and inhuman organization which needs to be reversed by all means necessary into an authoritarian, elite-led, Our Way Or Else religion which rewards the losers and persecutes the inventors and producers.
Forget about culture or identity. It is all about money. The West is very generous and obviously immigrants respond rationally. This is the first step then it all depends on whether they get out of the enclaves. So far multiculturalism in Europe has not worked well as far as integration goes but still early days.
There are few teenagers over the last 20 from upper or middle income countries who have not watched an extraordinary number of Friends episodes, often several times over. The cultural power of the US is overwhelming.
I understand that places that have never had a western lifestyle might need some time to see the error of their ways. But if western life is THAT attractive, how come some countries (Iran, Turkey) have actually moved away from modernism and regressed towards Islam?
"while Talibanic enforcers cruise Greenwich Village burning books and barber shops, the Supreme Court decides sharia law doesn't violate the 'separation of church and state,' and the Hollywood Left decides to give up on gay rights in favor of the much safer charms of polygamy."
Sixteen years later, it does seem likely that this will fail to come to pass.
It's not impossible that the publishing of America Alone is what warned westerners to the danger of Islam and thus initiated a pushback. I'm not sure I believe that, or even that Mark Steyn would either, but I do believe that his writings and videos, along with those of Douglas Murray, Sam Harris and Ayaan Hirsi Ali helped strengthen the opposition to Islam in the West.
And if the Hollywood left hasn't cracked down on gays and told actresses to get back in the kitchen it's not from moral conviction but simply because they can see which side currently has the wind in its sails. But winds can change and when it does, Hollywood will change with it.
Dutch here! I think and hope you are ultimately right, but it’s more tricky than you think..
Islam is not just a slightly exotic christianity. Its much more comprehensive, with its own legal system, more political organization, etc. These things persist in Europe: most muslims in the Netherlands marry through arranged marriage, often with someone in the home country, sometimes with cousins. We had many cases of marital captivity, secret sharia courts, etc. Religious identity gets mixed with ethnic and national identity of the country of origin. The loyalty of most of our Muslim immigrant population is not hard to guess, and its not with us.. Even my ex-girlfriend, who is a diplomat, signalled quite often that her ultimate loyalty was with muslims, not with the country.
Especially for guys its a pretty sweet deal: they tend to drink and fuck around, until they want to marry: a virgin muslim girl of course. Change has to come, and is often coming, from girls, who choose freedom over their second-class role. I think on balance, things will work out, and if we limit immigration, we can keep Islamization of our country to a minimum - liberalism will then prevail. But its a subtle balance, and not at all a done deal. Mind you: our second city, Rotterdam, is already co-governed by a Muslim party that calls for the chemical castration of sex offenders, abolition of Israel, claimed that Dutch doctors are purposefully killing Moroccan patients, etc..
Well that may settle things but it does not suggest that assimilation will be a done deal.
Don’t think full assimilation is feasible in the mid-term.. It’s also not really required: the Netherlands is a functioning country and can handle ~5% of the population being Islamic. If it can also handle 20%? I don’t know. Things in the Middle East are generally trending in the right direction, with Saudi taking the lead in liberalization. However, what if Vision 2030 fails and backfires? What if the conflict with Iran escalates?
In terms of a civilizational conflict between the West and Islam, I think we are on the winning side: liberal values are gaining ground. However, declaring victory is premature, and I’d like to be risk-averse when it comes to the future of my country. Difference in birth rates between ethnic Dutch and immigrants will cause a demographic transition anyway, which will likely have large, but currently unknown effects on culture, politics, national identity, etc. Let’s see what that brings, no need to accelerate the process.
That’s my biggest problem with Caplan’s open borders idea. Europe is currently undergoing its biggest demographic experiment and transition in a thousand years. Let’s see how that goes, will we? I know Caplan believes the math of migrationmaxxing works out, but I think he does not allow for enough model uncertainty. From a longtermist perspective, err on the side of caution, I’d rather have slightly lower economic growth while potentially avoiding civilizational collapse.
What's impressive is that almost 20 years after America Alone, came out, how correct it's been. It came out years before Merkel opened up the floodgates of Islamic immigration, but Steyn correctly called out how at even lower previous levels, Islamic immigration would change life in Europe and its foreign policy. The show of force carried about by European Islamic immigrants since October 7th and EU governments reluctance to back Israel, further bolsters Steyn's thesis on how immigration will make Europe more similar to Damascus than the reverse.
Amazing you had the guts to post something that certainly, as they say, hasn't aged well.
"The West has Paris." Do we? And if so for how long, given current trends?
Fiery spokesmen who're outnumbered can still have a very outsized influence, look at all the influence the pro-Palestine movement has despite being so small
"Western culture, beautiful, fun, and smart, wins converts and undermines the competition simply by existing."
Western culture, oblivious, arrogant and stodgy, is systematically grooming its own younger generations to consider itself a horribly sinful, racist, oppressive and inhuman organization which needs to be reversed by all means necessary into an authoritarian, elite-led, Our Way Or Else religion which rewards the losers and persecutes the inventors and producers.
Forget about culture or identity. It is all about money. The West is very generous and obviously immigrants respond rationally. This is the first step then it all depends on whether they get out of the enclaves. So far multiculturalism in Europe has not worked well as far as integration goes but still early days.
There are few teenagers over the last 20 from upper or middle income countries who have not watched an extraordinary number of Friends episodes, often several times over. The cultural power of the US is overwhelming.
I understand that places that have never had a western lifestyle might need some time to see the error of their ways. But if western life is THAT attractive, how come some countries (Iran, Turkey) have actually moved away from modernism and regressed towards Islam?
"while Talibanic enforcers cruise Greenwich Village burning books and barber shops, the Supreme Court decides sharia law doesn't violate the 'separation of church and state,' and the Hollywood Left decides to give up on gay rights in favor of the much safer charms of polygamy."
Sixteen years later, it does seem likely that this will fail to come to pass.
It's not impossible that the publishing of America Alone is what warned westerners to the danger of Islam and thus initiated a pushback. I'm not sure I believe that, or even that Mark Steyn would either, but I do believe that his writings and videos, along with those of Douglas Murray, Sam Harris and Ayaan Hirsi Ali helped strengthen the opposition to Islam in the West.
And if the Hollywood left hasn't cracked down on gays and told actresses to get back in the kitchen it's not from moral conviction but simply because they can see which side currently has the wind in its sails. But winds can change and when it does, Hollywood will change with it.
Suggest you stick to something you know at least a smidgen about. Like...like...like...