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Manuel's avatar

I'm surprised nobody has offered to bet against your view on addiction. If I understand it correctly, you think that people who are addicted to X and "try to" get off of X aren't really trying that hard, that they are somewhere between lying and fooling themselves.

OK then. I suggest you spend a month using nicotine vapes and pouches, and then try to quit. I think this experience will at the very least modify your view of what it's like to quit an addictive substance, and I think there's a bet to be made here. I think there's about a 20% chance that your first attempt at quitting fails, so I'd take 4:1 odds – presumably you're more than 80% sure?

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