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James Hohman's avatar

"But there is little reason to believe that choice will spread to purple or blue states by example."

I understand the point. But let me supply a little reason.

Pennsylvania is a reason to believe that bipartisanship through hyperpartisanship will break through to purple states. Even if the governor there says one thing and does another, saying something matters in politics.

I dove into state candidates appeals on education and Democrats adopted school choice rhetoric even if they opposed school choice policies. That's a recent change.

Besides, the Parents Revolution is recent, in policy change terms. No state before 2021 had a universal school choice program. Politicians are looking at the political reactions, the lack of political reactions, the rewards and punishments bestowed upon the actors.

In other words, I would be happy to make a bet that a purple state passes universal school choice. You have an impressive prediction record, but I'm sure we can settle on terms.

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Medieval Cat's avatar

It would be interesting to get you take on school choice in Sweden. My impression is that the experiment hasn't turned out well. Grade inflation is rampant because grades are mostly up to the teachers who have every incentive to push grades higher. Pupils pick "lazy" low-quality schools that promises perks like laptops and restaurant lunches (if you think school is daycare this is less of a problem, it only shows the waste in the whole system). You need to queue your kid at birth to get into a "good" school and those schools also seem to discriminate against special needs or otherwise hard-to-manage kids, which causes a self fulfilling prophecy of segregation.

Most of these problems were predictable and could be fixed (if it wasn't politically unpopular): Have external grading and have lotteries instead of queues. The bribe-with-perks problem is harder to adress but maybe it isn't much of an issue if education is mostly signaling.

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