My Complete Bet Wiki
By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.
To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. Six victories ago, I wrote:
A guy who wins one bet could easily have gotten lucky. But someone who wins 10 out of 10 bets – or, in my case, 14 out of 14 bets – almost certainly has superior knowledge and judgment. This is especially true if someone lives the Bettors’ Oath by credibly promising to bet on (or retract) any public statement. A bet is a lot like a tennis match: one victory slightly raises the probability that the winner is the superior player, but it’s entirely possible that he just got lucky. A betting record, in contrast, is a lot like a tennis ranking; people who win consistently against any challenger do so by skill, not luck.
Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”
But still.
P.S. The wiki also includes one bet for which I am a witness rather than a participant. I am open to witnessing other bets.
The post appeared first on Econlib.
Dear Professor Caplan, many of your bets are on things with high probability of being right, is part of that your focus on low hanging fruit where public statements are very irrational? Maintaining the reputation of uncommon wisdom? Would you consider a bet you honestly thought was 80/20 odds or so? Thank you,
Hmm well a EU country with over 10 million population (UK) did withdraw from the EU before 2020, no? Did you win because the EU dragged out the finalization of the process? Technically one could say that it never ended