I Win My Cruz Bet with Steve Pearlstein

In early February, noted journalist and GMU professor Steve Pearlstein bet me $50 at even odds that Ted Cruz would win the Republican nomination.  I have now officially won.

Why did I make this bet?  Simple: At the time, betting markets gave Cruz about a 10% chance of winning.  Pearlstein claimed to know Cruz was very likely to win, so I bet him.  Soon after we made the bet, Cruz rebounded, peaking at 34% in mid-April, marginally shaking my confidence.  But nothing came of it in the end.

My final assessment: I have great respect for Pearlstein’s knowledge of American politics.  I think he did know more than betting markets.  But he didn’t know enough to see a 10% probability in the market and conclude the true probability exceeded 50%.

The post appeared first on Econlib.