Converting Ordinary Language to Probabilities: CIA Edition
Interesting email from Todd Proebsting, reprinted with his permission.
Dear Prof. Caplan,
Your recent attempt at a wager on Iran’s nuclear progress, and the subsequent exchange with the author about why you wanted 10:1 odds reminded me that the CIA tried to quantify what certain claims meant:
100% Certainty The General Area of Possibility 93% give or take about 6% Almost certain 75% give or take about 12% Probable 50% give or take about 10% Chances about even 30% give or take about 10% Probably not 7% give or take about 5% Almost certainly not 0% Impossibility
It’s from a 50-year old CIA proposal.
It’s interesting to me that “Almost certain” was only 93%. I think the CIA would have argued that you should have been asking for even longer odds given the original claim.
Cheers,
Todd Proebsting
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